The first official day of fall has arrived, and with it comes the anticipation of what winter 2025–26 will bring. While no one can predict the weather down to the exact storm, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides detailed seasonal outlooks that give us a clear picture of likely trends. These forecasts analyze large-scale climate patterns to estimate whether different regions of the United States are more likely to experience above-average or below-average temperatures and precipitation.
For the upcoming January–February–March 2026 period, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its outlook on September 18, 2025. The results are exciting for winter sports enthusiasts in some regions, while others may be disappointed. Skiers and snowboarders in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies are expected to benefit from cooler and wetter conditions, but those in the Southwest and Northeast might face a tougher season with warmth and inconsistent snow.
This in-depth article breaks down NOAA’s outlook region by region, explains what it means for winter recreation, highlights possible implications for agriculture, energy, and daily life, and explores how broader climate drivers play into the forecast.
NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook: A Quick Overview
NOAA issues three-month seasonal outlooks that include both temperature and precipitation probabilities. Instead of forecasting exact highs, lows, or snowfall totals, these maps use probability ranges to show whether a region is more likely to lean above, below, or stay near normal.
- Temperature outlook: Focuses on whether areas are likely to experience warmer, cooler, or neutral conditions compared to long-term averages.
- Precipitation outlook: Predicts whether regions will see wetter, drier, or near-average conditions.
- Probability ranges: Typically 33–40%, 40–50%, 50–60%, or higher. The larger the percentage, the stronger the confidence in the trend.
For January through March 2026, the outlook paints a split story across the country: colder conditions in the north, warmer trends in the south and east, and neutral odds in the central U.S.
Temperature Outlook: January–March 2026
Below is a breakdown of NOAA’s regional temperature projections.
| Region | Probability Trend | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest (WA, OR, western ID, western MT) | 33–60% leaning below normal | Cooler winter, higher frost and snow chances |
| Northern Rockies & Plains (eastern MT, ND, MN, northern WI) | 40–70% below normal | Strong signal for cold snaps, frozen precipitation |
| Central U.S. (WY, CO, NE, SD, KS, IA, MO, IL, AR, eastern OK) | Equal chances | No tilt toward colder or warmer |
| Southwest (CA, NV, AZ, UT, NM, western TX) | 60–80% above normal | Warm and dry, poor snowpack |
| South Central (southern TX, LA) | 33–50% above normal | Milder winters expected |
| Southeast (FL, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, Carolinas, VA) | 60–80% above normal | Warm spells, earlier spring-like conditions |
| Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DE) | 70–90% above normal | Warmest outlook in the nation, limited cold waves |
| Alaska | Interior equal chances; south/west leaning cooler | Cooler southern/western Alaska, neutral interior trends |
Key Takeaways
- Best chance for cold: Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
- Warmest signal: Northeast, where up to 90% odds favor a warmer winter.
- Mixed story: Alaska sees divided patterns with cooler coasts but neutral interiors.
Precipitation Outlook: January–March 2026
Here’s how NOAA expects precipitation trends to unfold across regions.
| Region | Probability Trend | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest (western WA, OR, western ID, western MT) | 33–50% above normal | Wetter winter, strong snowpack potential |
| Northern Rockies & Plains (eastern MT, ND, SD, northern WY) | 40–70% above normal | Frequent snowfall, good ski season |
| Central U.S. (NV, UT, CO, KS, NE, IA, MO, AR, OK, TX) | Equal chances | Uncertain precipitation trends |
| Southwest (CA, AZ, NM) | 60–80% below normal | Drought intensification, weaker snow totals |
| South Central (LA, southern TX) | 33–50% below normal | Dry winter spells |
| Southeast (GA, AL, MS, TN, Carolinas, VA) | 33–50% above normal | Wetter conditions, possible flooding |
| Southeast Florida | 60–70% below normal | Dry season dominates |
| Northeast (ME–DE) | 33–50% above normal | Wetter than average, but warmer temps may mean rain instead of snow |
| Alaska | Equal chances | No clear tilt toward wetter or drier outcomes |
Key Takeaways
- Snowy winners: Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies look best for ski resorts.
- Dry losers: Southwest and Florida are at risk of drought extension.
- Mixed bag: Northeast may see more storms but warmer air, which could bring rain rather than snow.
Regional Implications
Pacific Northwest
This region could experience one of the stronger ski seasons in recent memory. With cooler and wetter conditions, resorts in Washington, Oregon, and western Idaho are poised for deep snowpacks. Water resources in the region also stand to benefit, replenishing reservoirs.
Northern Rockies and Plains
Montana, North Dakota, and surrounding states are expected to see consistent cold and snowfall. This means excellent ski and snowboard conditions in resorts such as Big Sky, while farmers may face challenges from extended cold snaps.
Central U.S.
Equal chances mean uncertainty. Farmers, travelers, and energy planners in states like Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas will have to prepare for multiple scenarios, as no dominant signal emerges.
Southwest
The harshest news arrives here. Warm and dry conditions may reduce snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada and Arizona’s highlands. This could intensify ongoing drought problems, stressing agriculture and water supply.
Southeast
Residents can expect wetter but warmer conditions. This could lead to localized flooding and earlier-than-usual spring blooms. For those hoping for snow in states like Tennessee or North Carolina, chances are slim.
Northeast
Although precipitation could be above normal, the strong warmth tilt makes snow unlikely. Ski resorts in New England may face inconsistent snow, with rainouts or slushy conditions reducing quality days on the slopes.
Alaska
Southern Alaska leans cooler, which may bring stormy conditions to Anchorage and coastal communities. The interior shows no tilt, suggesting mixed weather outcomes.
What This Means for Skiers and Snowboarders
- Best bets: Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Resorts like Mt. Hood, Stevens Pass, and Big Sky could thrive.
- Challenging zones: The Southwest and Northeast may see reduced snowpack, inconsistent ski conditions, and greater reliance on artificial snow.
- Variable regions: Central U.S. resorts like Colorado could go either way, depending on short-term weather events.
Ski Season Ranking by Region
| Region | Snowfall Outlook | Ski Season Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest | High snow potential | Strong season |
| Northern Rockies | High snow potential | Strong season |
| Central U.S. | Neutral | Moderate, unpredictable |
| Southwest | Low snow potential | Weak season |
| Northeast | Warm & wet | Inconsistent, lower quality |
Broader Impacts Beyond Skiing
Agriculture
- Northern Plains: Extended cold may stress winter wheat.
- Southwest: Drought risks could cut water for crops and livestock.
- Southeast: Wetter conditions could improve soil moisture but raise flood risk.
Energy Demand
- Colder conditions in the north may raise heating fuel demand.
- Warmer East and South reduce natural gas consumption but could increase electricity usage if early warmth drives air conditioning.
Water Supply
Snowpack in the Pacific Northwest will help summer water availability. The opposite is true in the Southwest, where shrinking snowpack could stress reservoirs.
Climate Drivers at Play
Several large-scale factors shape these trends:
- El Niño/La Niña cycles: A shift toward neutral or weak La Niña can favor colder northern winters.
- Arctic Oscillation: This atmospheric pattern strongly influences cold air outbreaks into the U.S.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Impacts precipitation patterns across western states.
Conclusion
The January–March 2026 NOAA outlook offers a season of contrasts. For skiers in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, the signs are promising for a snowy, powder-filled winter. For those in the Southwest and Northeast, expectations must be tempered, as warmth and dryness could limit opportunities.
Beyond recreation, these forecasts matter for farmers, businesses, and families making decisions about energy, travel, and water use. While the outlook provides probabilities rather than guarantees, it remains a valuable tool for planning ahead.
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