A fresh update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on October 24, 2025 points to a warm, dry start to November across the Southwest. Expect sunny, above-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation through mid-month, especially for metro areas like Phoenix, Tucson, and Las Vegas.
The calm may not last. Forecasters indicate a Pacific trough could move inland sometime between November 18 and 22, nudging the region toward a brief taste of winter. If it materializes, snow levels could drop to around 6,000 feet across portions of northern Arizona, the Mogollon Rim, and northern New Mexico. Accumulations look light at this stage, but even a modest snowfall could create slick spots over mountain passes and introduce headaches for early holiday travelers—particularly if the system strengthens.
Bottom line: November should feel comfortable for most of the Southwest, but a pre-Thanksgiving disturbance could serve as the season’s first reminder that colder days are just ahead.
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