As the warmth of summer fades and cooler air settles in, anticipation builds across the United States for the first flakes of the season. For some, the first snow signals holiday cheer; for others, it means road safety concerns, school delays, or the start of the ski season. The 2025–2026 first snowfall forecast from Direct Weather sheds light on when and where the first snow is likely to fall, offering insights that are both practical and exciting.
This outlook matters for travelers, snow lovers, farmers, and city planners alike. Knowing when the first snowfall is likely to occur helps everyone prepare—whether that means waxing skis, winterizing homes, or prepping snowplows.
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What Determines the First Snowfall
Several factors shape when snow first falls in any given year:
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Elevation – Higher elevations cool faster and see earlier snow.
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Latitude – Northern areas lose daylight sooner, accelerating cooling.
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Moisture availability – Even in cold air, snow won’t form without precipitation.
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Temperature trends – Cold air masses and jet stream patterns dictate when rain shifts to snow.
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Climate variability – ENSO phases, the Arctic Oscillation, and other climate drivers influence storm tracks.
2025 – 2026 First Snowfall Forecast / Prediction
This year’s first snowfall forecast provides insights into when you can expect to see snow across the United States.
As the leaves turn and cooler air sets in, skiers and snowboarders across the U.S. are eager to know when the first flakes might dust the peaks and plains. Based on insights from Direct Weather, the first snowfall timing forecast for the 2025-2026 season—released on September 17, 2025—breaks down average expectations by region while factoring in seasonal temperature outlooks.
Whether you’re in the Rockies or the Appalachians, understanding these timelines helps you prepare for that magical moment when winter arrives.
Understanding Average First Snowfall Timing Across the U.S.
Direct Weather’s analysis illustrates when different areas typically see their inaugural snowfall of the season, based on historical averages. Elevation and geography remain key: mountain peaks often see early flakes while valleys and coastal areas wait longer. Yet weather patterns always allow for surprises.
Average First Snowfall Periods by Region
| Period | Typical Regions | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| September | Extreme peaks in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado; occasional Sierra Nevada or Utah high country | Very rare, <1% of population affected |
| Early October | Expands to Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, South Dakota, Idaho mountains | Still limited coverage, early alpine snow |
| Late October | Cascades (WA/OR), Nevada, Idaho, Utah, NM, ND, NE; Upper Peninsula, Adirondacks, White Mountains, N. NH/ME | Broader coverage, early Plains flurries possible |
| Early November | Nearly all western ranges, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic ridges, Northeast | First widespread flakes |
| Late November | Lower/mid-elev West; TX/OK Panhandles; KS, NE, IA, southern MN/WI, northern IL/IN/OH, SE MI, Appalachians, much of New England/NY | Growing reach into population centers |
| Early December | Central/southern Plains (MO, IL, IN, OH), WV, VA, NC, MD, PA, NJ, southern/coastal New England | First snow for many eastern cities |
| Late December | Expands into AZ, NM, TX, OK, KS, MO, AR, KY, TN, NC mountains, VA, Mid-Atlantic cities | Snow touches much of the country |
| January | Northern TX/OK, AR, MS, AL, GA, TN, Carolinas, SE VA | If snow hasn’t fallen yet, this is usually the last chance |
| No Average Snow | Deep South, coastal Southeast, Florida | Rare events only every few years to decades |
Which U.S. Ski Resort Will Open First?
Ski resorts compete to claim “first to open” status each year. Historically, early contenders include Arapahoe Basin and Loveland in Colorado, thanks to their high elevation and snowmaking capabilities. With cooler-than-average conditions in the central and eastern U.S., resorts in the Midwest and Northeast may also enjoy early starts in 2025–2026, but the Rockies remain most likely to open first.
Temperature Forecast Impact on First Snowfall Timing
Direct Weather’s fall outlook shows:
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Above-normal temperatures in much of the West – This could delay early snow at high elevations unless storms deliver strong cold snaps.
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Cooler-than-average conditions across the central and eastern U.S. – This favors earlier snowfall across the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast.
For winter proper, below-average temperatures in the East increase the odds of snow arriving early. Out West, storm frequency will be key—if moisture misses, snow could arrive later than normal despite cold peaks.
Why This Forecast Matters
The timing of first snow affects:
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Outdoor recreation – Skiers and snowboarders plan around early flakes.
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Agriculture – Early frosts combined with snow can damage late harvests.
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Infrastructure & safety – Road crews and power companies must anticipate when snow will arrive.
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Travel – Airports and highways face disruptions when the first widespread snow falls.
Early warnings allow communities to prepare for potential hazards, from icy commutes to energy demand spikes.
Direct Weather’s Seasonal Outlook: Key Drivers for 2025-2026
Several climate signals are shaping this year’s first snowfall outlook:
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Cooler eastern trends – Suggest earlier snow chances in the Midwest and Northeast.
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Warmer western autumns – Likely to delay snow at lower elevations.
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Moisture surpluses in the Northwest and Rockies – Increase snowfall chances once cold air arrives.
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Storm track positioning – A southward jet stream dip could deliver snow further into the Plains.
Regional First Snowfall Timing
| Region | Likely First Snowfall Window | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Western Mountains (Rockies, Cascades, Sierra) | Late September–October (high peaks), November (mid elevations) | Strong elevation dependence |
| Northern Plains / Upper Midwest | Late October–early November | Cold snaps with moisture; lake-effect possible |
| Northeast / New England | Early to mid-November | Higher ridges first, valleys later |
| Mid-Atlantic / Appalachians | November–December | Ridges earlier, valleys later |
| Southern Plains / Southeast | December–January (if at all) | Highly variable, often rare |
Comparison With Recent Years
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In some recent autumns, first snow came late, especially in warmer-than-average years.
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The 2025-2026 outlook suggests earlier snow in the East and Midwest compared to recent averages.
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The West may see delays at lower elevations despite mountain peaks still getting their usual early dustings.
Uncertainties That Could Shift the Forecast
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Storm track deviations may miss cold air.
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Unexpected warm spells could delay snow by weeks.
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Dry air could prevent snow despite freezing temps.
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Local geography (lake-effect, coastal winds) introduces variability.
Final Thoughts
The 2025-2026 first snowfall season looks like a tale of two coasts. The East may see earlier-than-average flakes thanks to below-normal temperatures, while the West might linger in autumn warmth at lower elevations.
From September’s high-altitude dustings to January’s late southern arrivals, most of the U.S. will have experienced snow by New Year’s. Whether you’re chasing powder, prepping roads, or simply waiting for that first magical snowfall, Direct Weather’s outlook offers the roadmap—now it’s up to Mother Nature to decide the exact dates.
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