Morristown, NJ — Millions of Americans who receive Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits are expected to see a 2.7% increase in their monthly payments starting in January 2026, according to projections by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan advocacy group focused on senior issues.
This cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), intended to help beneficiaries keep pace with inflation, is calculated annually by the Social Security Administration (SSA) based on third-quarter inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The final figure for the 2026 COLA will be officially announced on October 15, 2025, following the release of CPI-W data for September.
Estimated Impact on Benefits
If the 2.7% estimate holds, it would surpass the 2.5% COLA granted in 2025 and slightly exceed the 20-year average COLA of 2.6%, though it still falls short of the 2.9% year-over-year inflation recorded from August 2024 to August 2025.
- For retired workers, the average monthly benefit could rise from $2,008 to approximately $2,062, an increase of about $54.
- For recipients of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), whose average benefit was $1,583 in August 2025, the increase would amount to about $43.
- Survivor benefits, averaging $1,575, would also see a similar $43 rise.
- The maximum federal SSI benefit, currently $967 for individuals and $1,450 for couples, could increase modestly as well. Some states, including New Jersey, supplement federal SSI with additional funds, so final payment amounts may vary by location.
When the Increases Will Be Reflected
Social Security beneficiaries will begin receiving checks reflecting the 2026 COLA in January. The payment schedule is determined by birth date:
- Born 1st–10th: Check arrives Jan. 14, 2026
- Born 11th–20th: Check arrives Jan. 21, 2026
- Born 21st–31st: Check arrives Jan. 28, 2026
Certain groups will see increases earlier:
- SSI recipients will receive their adjusted payment on Dec. 31, 2025, since Jan. 1 is a federal holiday.
- Beneficiaries who began receiving Social Security before May 1997 will get their first adjusted check on Jan. 3, 2026.
Historical Context and Methodology
Annual COLAs have been a feature of Social Security since 1975. The calculation compares the average CPI-W for July–September 2025 with the same period in 2024. The adjustment ensures that benefits are not eroded by inflation, though the increase may not always fully reflect rising consumer costs. COLAs cannot be negative—in years where inflation does not rise, benefits remain static. This occurred in 2010, 2011, and 2016.
While a 2.7% increase is modest compared to the record 8.7% adjustment in 2023, it signals a continued effort to align benefits with inflation trends. According to economist Teresa Ghilarducci of the New School for Social Research, even this increase may not fully offset rising costs if current inflationary pressures persist.
Additional Social Security Changes in 2026
In addition to the COLA, the Social Security program will undergo several other changes in 2026:
- Full Retirement Age (FRA) Adjustment
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- FRA will increase to 67 for individuals born in or after 1960, marking the final step in the phased transition from age 65.
- Higher Earnings Cap for Taxable Wages
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- The maximum earnings subject to Social Security tax will rise to an estimated $183,600, up from $176,100 in 2025. This limit determines how much income is subject to the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax.
- Increased Earnings Limits for Early Retirees
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- Those collecting benefits before reaching FRA can earn up to $24,360 in 2026 before seeing reductions in their benefits.
- For those reaching FRA in 2026, the limit is projected at $64,800.
- After reaching FRA, beneficiaries can earn unlimited income without a reduction in benefits.
Tax Considerations
Since 1984, Social Security benefits have been taxable based on income thresholds:
- Individuals earning under $25,000 (or couples under $32,000) pay no tax on benefits.
- For incomes between $25,000–$34,000 (or $32,000–$44,000 for couples), up to 50% of benefits may be taxed.
- Above those limits, up to 85% of benefits may be subject to federal income tax.
Final Outlook
The official COLA will be confirmed next month, but the expected increase will offer a modest financial cushion for the more than 68 million Americans who receive Social Security, including the 7.4 million SSI recipients—many of whom are individuals with disabilities or limited income.
As always, beneficiaries are encouraged to monitor updates from the Social Security Administration and review how upcoming changes may impact their personal benefits.
For more information or to view the 2026 Social Security payment calendar, visit the SSA’s website.
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