The Southern Plains are on track for a comfortable first half of November, with a cooler twist possible as Thanksgiving approaches.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s October 24, 2025 outlook, Texas, Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and Arkansas are favored for above-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation through mid-month. That translates to plenty of pleasant fall days and little to no threat of early-season snow for most of the region.
Forecasters caution that the broader pattern may change later in the month. As the jet stream dips south closer to Thanksgiving, colder air from the Rockies could spill into the Plains. Most areas are expected to stay dry, but if the front lines up with enough moisture, northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas could see frost and perhaps a few light flurries.
What to expect now
– Through mid-November: Warmer-than-normal afternoons and generally dry conditions across TX, OK, southern KS, and AR.
– Little risk of early snow for most of the region.
What to watch later
– Late November: A southward shift in the jet stream may usher in a colder air mass near the holiday.
– Precipitation chances remain low overall, but northern OK and southern KS could see frost or brief flurries if moisture arrives with the front.
Travel takeaway for Thanksgiving week
– Overall, the Southern Plains forecast looks mostly favorable for holiday travel.
– Keep an eye on local forecasts during the final week of November for quick temperature drops and a chillier feel, especially in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
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