Mild Start, Wintry Tease? Mid-South Eyes a Thanksgiving Week Cooldown

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s October 24, 2025 outlook points to a warmer, mostly dry pattern across the Mid-South through the first half of November. That includes Tennessee, western Kentucky, eastern Arkansas, and the northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. With temperatures running above average and limited moisture early on, the chance for snow remains very low to start the month.

However, forecasters caution the pattern could shift as Thanksgiving approaches. Stronger cold fronts dropping out of the Midwest may slide southward late month, ushering in colder air, brisk winds, and the potential for patchy frost in inland areas. If one of these systems deepens enough, a brief mix of rain and wet snowflakes can’t be ruled out for higher elevations or locales in northern Tennessee and western Kentucky just before the holiday.

For now, the Mid-South stays quiet and comfortably mild. But the final stretch of November may deliver a sharper hint that winter is waiting in the wings.